Mid May 2015 Update

Sell in May?


My Current Retirement Project


My Grandfather’s Memoirs. Buried in the family files for almost 70 years. I found them and published them. Written in the late forties, it details his life from his birth in 1874 in Iceland. I have been doing extensive research on his life and will start writing his biography this fall.


Note on the TSX – Toronto Stock Exchange.

You may have noticed that the TSX has had a reasonable run this year, up almost 4%.  However the stocks that I invest in and recommend – the strong, dividend growers – have not performed as well.  The spill-over from oil prices combined with the lower Canadian interest rates, have combined to suppress these stocks.  However they still produce good and growing dividends.  So what is pushing the TSX up?  It is the more marginal, speculative companies that I would never touch.  One prime example is Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (VRX).  This obscure company has become one of the larger components of the TSX.  VRX is trading near $270 per share, up from it’s 52 week low of $116. It is trading at a PE ratio of 75, pushing it into the territory that Nortel (anyone remember Nortel?) held before it collapsed to a penny stock and filed for bankruptcy.  This type of company is distorting the index much like Nortel did in the late 1990s. Nortel, now defunct, accounted for 30% of the TSE in the 1990s.

So if your blue chip stocks are not performing as well as the general market, don’t fret.  They are still solid stocks producing growing dividends.  Hang tough.


Stock Ranking – looking to cull

I have used my usual rudimentary scoring scheme to rank the stocks in order of best to buy now to least best to buy now.  I use a variety of equally weighted factors, such as dividend yield, dividend growth, PE, Beta, price change, etc.  The lower the score the better, as far as purchasing goes.  I am looking at culling some of my holdings, so I will look at the higher scores for selling. (note: the stock price date is May 4)

On the “buy” side there are a few oil industry companies.  It looks like oil has bottomed out and rebounded a bit, but there is a chance it could drop again before a real recovery.  I wouldn’t advocate selling your oil stocks now, but I’m not sure this is the right time to buy, even though they seem to be rated highly.

With that said, COP sits in the top 10 on the US stocks, so in spite of ValueLine dropping it to A+, I may hang on to it for a bit.  If nothing else, I am getting a good cash dividend.  Click HERE for one analyst’s opinion on COP.

I will update you on any changes I make.  I normally sell in May and hold the cash until fall for purchasing.  However the last couple of years have not produced the expected summer doldrums, so any selling I do will likely just be replaced with a position in an existing holding.


The List

(The lower the score, the better to buy now, the high scores are candidates for culling.)  Note: if anyone wants my spreadsheet, just send me your email address.

Canadian Stocks US Stocks
Ticker Score   Ticker Score
RUS.TO       93 TOT       84
HSE.TO     116 INTC     119
AGU     118 WMT     126
NA.TO     118 IBM     131
SJRB.TO     123 RDSB     135
BNS.TO     128 T     136
POW     133 QCOM     137
CM.TO     133 COP     138
TD.TO     134 VZ     146
MBT.TO     142 CVX     149
PWF     143 XOM     153
SU.TO     144 OXY     157
BMO.TO     144 PEG     158
BCE     145 LMT     160
RY.TO     145 EMR     169
SLF     147 DE     169
T.TO     150 RTN     170
IGM     152 PG     172
TRP     154 BA     176
MFC     156 MO     177
FTS.TO     160 TXN     183
GWO     164 JNJ     184
GG     164 MCD     186
POT     171 BAX     187
ENB.TO     177 PEP     188
CU     178 CSCO     200
PPL.TO     180 PM     200
TRI.TO     184 KO     202
MSFT     203
PFE     204
MRK     207
NVS     207
DD     212
MMM     216
KMB     217
UL     228



About borgford

Feel free to contact me with questions: brianborgford@hotmail.com
This entry was posted in Commentary. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Mid May 2015 Update

  1. Pingback: Mid Month update – October 2015 | Brian Borgford – Investing

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s